.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Saturday, December 01, 2007


Just for fun: Primary Election Predictions

After 2 years of posturing by the candidates we are finally getting close, and it might just be a horse race.

On the Democrat side I will remind you of where we were at this time in the last election cycle. John Kerry was on no body's radar, he was simply the rich kid in the ring. Nearly everyone assumed Howard Dean was a shoe-in for the Democrat nomination. He was polling well nationally and the early states. The party rank and file decided he was not electable, and he probably wasn't, so they switched horses at the last minute.

Hillary is no Howard Dean, but the party rank and file are having doubts whether she is electable. Obama is a much more likable guy, with the potential to have much broader appeal than Hillary and he has none of the baggage Hillary has. Still, Obama is a virtual neophyte to national politics. Could he be the next JFK? Probably not.

John Edwards may be the most electable of the Democrats, but he seems to be running for the second slot on the ticket, to my eye. He doesn't seem to want the nomination as badly as the other two.

I predict Hillary gets the nomination and chooses a VP who will be perceived as tough on terror.

For the Republicans everything is still up in the air. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans don't have a default candidate like Clinton.

Huckabee is gaining ground due to good performances in the debates. Romney is coming on strong. Thompson is doing more poorly than expected, but he is still in the race. Giuliani leads in the national polls, but even so he is in the low 30% range. McCain is the only major candidate who we can cross off the list.

Giuliani is a media candidate. Pro-abortion, anti 2nd ammendment, pro-civil union, philanderer, fought for NYC to be a sanctuary city, corruption in his administration, etc. He can only run on the fact he was tough on crime and may be tough on terror. He does have the liberal media behind him, so we can't count him out. However, I doubt he will be getting the nomination in this election cycle.

Huckabee, Romney and Thompson all have a legitimate shot. When Giuliani is out of the race 30% of the voters will need to make another choice and who knows where that support will go?

I don't feel confident about this prediction at all but here goes: Romney gets the Republican nomination, and chooses Thompson as his running mate. The Republican ticket will then consist of a New England moderate and a Southern conservative, which should have very broad appeal.

Comments: Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?